The Great Natural Experiment of This Election Cycle

Dan Drezner is excited for science. Quoting Jeff Fecke, “Thought: Hillary has a great ground game, Trump literally doesn’t have one at all. Hillary is likely to overperform her excellent polling.”


If there was ever a time when the effect of field operations should be observable, it’s this election. Clinton should outperform her polling aggregates in states where she has a significant get-out-the-vote operation while Trump does not. To be sure, there are always possible confounding explanations for the absence of such a gap. This case is such an extreme one, however, that if we don’t see evidence here, it’s telling.

Yeah, hopefully political scientists will learn some stuff. But the cost of the lesson seems likely to be way too high or huge as they say.

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